Why Lok Sabha 2024 is a battle for survival for Uddhav-Pawar
New Delhi: The fifth phase of Lok Sabha polls on May 20 will see voting on 13 seats in Maharashtra. The state is creating a lot of confusion for voters. If voters had to choose between one Shiv Sena and one NCP in 2019, they now have two Shiv Senas and two NCPs, in addition to the Congress and the BJP.
Experts say the Lok Sabha elections are an existential threat for the Maratha strongmenSubhajit Sankar Dasguptafer, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
“Uddhav’s Shiv Sena has been pushed to the wall. So has Sharad Pawar’s NCP. It’s an existential threat for both leaders. If they lose this election, they might have to wind up their act. It’s life or death for both parties. At 83, there’s no way Sharad Pawar can lead his party which has been reduced to a rump. The number of seats they are contesting on is also less. Sharad Pawar is only interested in the victory of his daughter Supriya Sule,” said senior journalist S Balakrishnan on The News9 Plus Show.
Will the sympathy factor work?
With the split in their parties, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have been going around playing sympathy card about how their parties were taken from them. But the jury is still out on whether this will benefit them during the elections.
“Uddhav has tied up with the Congress who he has been opposing all his career. Whether Mumbaikars are willing to accept Uddhav as a Congress ally or not will decide the results,” said News9 Plus Senior Editor Kiran D Tare.
“I don’t think Uddhav has any sympathy benefit. On the other hand, he was the Chief Minister, had the state intelligence and Home Ministry under him and still had no clue that 36 + MLAs of his party were going to desert him. People consider it a colossal failure that he didn’t know what was happening right under his nose,” added Balakrishnan.
How will Lok Sabha elections affect Maharashtra Assembly polls?
If Uddhav’s Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP don’t perform well, experts foresee more desertions in both the parties. On the other hand, if they do well, there could be reversals ahead of the State Assembly elections scheduled for October. A lot could happen in these five months.
“If they don’t do well in the Lok Sabha polls, they will have a tough time in facing the assembly elections,” Balakrishnan said, calling out Uddhav Thackeray’s “anti-development attitude”.
“Uddhav’s Sena is saying no to everything when it comes to development. The Saudi oil company Aramco wanted to invest $4 billion for the world’s largest refinery projectin Maharashtra but Uddhav said no because of the threat of pollution. A French company wanted to start an atomic energy project in the state which Uddhav rejected,” he added.
He also pointed out that the average Marathi doesn’t think that Uddhav Thackeray is the only candidate to take Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy forward. “Balasaheb’s idealogy has been beautifully appropriated by Shinde as well as the BJP. And if Uddhav goes from bhau to bhaijaan, the average Marathi is going to rethink,” he said, referring to the Muslim support for Uddhav Thackeray due to his inclusive politics even as his cousin Raj Thackeray has tied up with the BJP.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Mumbai for a rally on May 17th and, for the first time, will share a stage with Raj Thackeray at Shivaji Park which has a memorial to Balasaheb Thackeray. The significance of the event is clear to all.
Tare added, “Uddhav’s real test will be to gather Marathi-speaking voters’ support when his cousin Raj Thackeray has teamed up with the BJP.”